Understanding the Transition: From Non-Recurring to Recurring Revenue Models in Boutique Professional Service Firms

Understanding the Transition: From Non-Recurring to Recurring Revenue Models in Boutique Professional Service Firms

Understanding the Challenge

For founders of boutique professional service firms, the shift from a non-recurring revenue model to a recurring revenue model is often a strategic move towards long-term stability and growth. However, this transition can be challenging, especially in terms of cash flow management. This article aims to guide you through this complex yet rewarding journey.

The J Curve: A Critical Concept

Before delving into the specifics, it’s essential to understand the concept of the J Curve in the context of this transition. The J Curve is a visual representation of a company’s cash flow following a significant investment or change in business strategy – initially, there’s a significant outflow of cash (the bottom of the ‘J’), but with time and effective management, the curve ascends, leading to increased profitability.

How the J Curve Applies

When switching to a recurring revenue model, your firm initially faces increased costs without immediate returns. These costs include client acquisition, setting up systems for recurring billing, and potentially, a temporary dip in revenues as you transition existing clients or onboard new ones. This initial phase represents the bottom of the J Curve.

Calculating Break-Even for a Given Client

To navigate this period, a clear understanding of the break-even point for each client is crucial. Here’s how to calculate it:

    1. Cost to Acquire (CTA): This includes marketing expenses, sales team costs, and any other costs directly related to acquiring a new client.
    2. Cost to Serve (CTS): These are the ongoing costs of servicing a client, including labor, software, or other resources.
    3. Overhead Allocation: Allocate a portion of your firm’s overhead costs to each client, based on a reasonable metric like revenue contribution or service hours.

Break-Even Point Calculation

Your break-even point is when your cumulative revenues from a client equal the sum of CTA, CTS, and allocated overhead.

The Exponential Profit Beyond Break-Even

Once the break-even point is met, each additional dollar from the client significantly contributes to your firm’s profitability. This exponential increase is due to the recurring nature of the revenue and the decreasing marginal cost of serving a client over time.

The number one reason boutique professional service firms do not make the transition to recurring revenues is they cannot handle the cash crunch. Firms get used to big checks hitting the bank account in a traditional project-based billing cycle. It is difficult to tell a client not to pay them so much this quick but rather pay them over time pro rata over the life of the contract. The founder sees the payroll going out without the revenue coming in and the cash balance in the bank account dwindle month over month, panics, and says “recurring revenue is not for us.” This is a mistake and there are solutions to the cash flow issues.

Overcoming Cash Flow Obstacles

Short-Term Solutions

    • Leverage Credit Facilities: A short-term loan or line of credit can help manage cash flow during the initial phase.
    • Re-negotiate Payment Terms: With suppliers or landlords, for instance, to align outflows with your new revenue model.

Long-Term Strategies

    • Optimize Client Acquisition Costs: Use data-driven marketing and sales strategies to reduce CTA.
    • Efficiency in Service Delivery: Streamline processes to lower CTS.
    • Client Retention: Implement strategies to retain clients, as the longer a client stays, the more profitable they become.

Conclusion

Transitioning to a recurring revenue model in a boutique professional service firm is a strategic move towards sustainable growth. Understanding and managing the J Curve, accurately calculating the break-even point, and implementing strategies to mitigate cash flow challenges are key to successfully navigating this transition. With careful planning and execution, the move to a recurring revenue model can lead to increased stability and profitability for your firm.

Are you wondering how to transition to recurring revenue? Or how to address the cash flow issues associated with the move? These strategic questions, as well as many others, get answered by your peers in the Collective 54 mastermind community. Consider joining by applying here

Determining the Right (and Wrong) Revenue for Your Firm

Determining the Right (and Wrong) Revenue for Your Firm

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If you have a single source of revenue, then you have a single point of failure. So a balanced revenue mix is essential for your business. But what does that look like for your firm?

In this video, we explore the impact a balanced revenue mix can have on the price of a firm, 3 types of revenue, and how to adjust depending on what stage you’re in.

In this video, you’ll learn about:

    • 3 types of revenue
    • Types of margins depending on the revenue type
    • The benefits of a balanced revenue mix
    • How to prepare for different types of revenue as you progress through your business journey

How to Align Sales Compensation with Your Firm’s Ideal Client Profile

How to Align Sales Compensation with Your Firm’s Ideal Client Profile

Understanding Good, Neutral, and Bad Revenue in Professional Service Firms

As the founder of a boutique professional service firm, you understand the importance of growth. But not all revenue is equal. In our quest for growth, it’s crucial to distinguish between good, neutral, and bad revenue – and align our sales compensation accordingly. This approach not only accelerates growth but ensures it’s sustainable and aligned with our core values and business goals.

Good Revenue: The Lifeblood of Your Firm

Good revenue is the kind that comes from clients who fit your firm’s Ideal Client Profile (ICP). These clients are not just profitable; they resonate with your firm’s expertise and values. They are the clients who appreciate your unique offerings and are willing to pay a premium for them. This type of revenue contributes to the long-term health and growth of your firm.

Neutral Revenue: The Opportunistic Capital

Neutral revenue comes from clients who don’t perfectly fit your ICP but still bring in working capital. This revenue is opportunistic and can support your firm during growth phases. However, it’s important not to lose focus on your ICP while dealing with such clients.

Bad Revenue: The Hidden Cost

Bad revenue, the most insidious of all, comes from clients who fall far outside your ICP. This type of revenue can be detrimental as it diverts your firm’s resources, focus, and energy from more aligned opportunities. It can lead to mission drift, employee dissatisfaction, and even damage your brand.

Aligning Sales Compensation

Now, let’s talk sales compensation design. Your sales team is the frontline in attracting and securing revenue. Their compensation should be strategically aligned with the kind of revenue they bring in.

    1. Rewarding Good Revenue

Salespeople should be incentivized to pursue and close deals with ICP-aligned clients. Consider paying a premium for good revenue. This can be in the form of higher commissions, bonuses, or SPIFFS. This not only motivates your team to focus on high-quality leads but also aligns their efforts with the firm’s strategic objectives.

    1. Neutral Revenue Compensation

For neutral revenue, stick to the standard rate of compensation. This acknowledges the effort put in by the sales team while subtly nudging them towards more ICP-aligned prospects.

    1. Discouraging Bad Revenue

Do not compensate sales for bad revenue. This might sound harsh, but it sends a clear message about the firm’s priorities. It’s crucial to communicate why certain clients are considered ‘bad’ for the business so your sales team understands the rationale behind this policy.

Conclusion

In a boutique professional service firm, growth is not just about increasing numbers; it’s about growing right. By aligning your sales compensation with your firm’s ideal client profile, you not only incentivize your team to bring in the most beneficial clients but also ensure that your firm stays true to its vision and values.

Remember, the goal is sustainable growth, and that comes from understanding and valuing the quality of revenue, not just the quantity.

Ideal client profiles and sales compensation are but only two topics discussed by members of Collective. If you think you might want to learn from your peers, consider joining Collective 54. You can apply here.

Want recurring revenue? 6 ideas any professional services firm could use

Want recurring revenue? 6 ideas any professional services firm could use

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Are you interested in generating recurring revenue at your firm? Which model will you take advantage of?

In this video, we break down 6 ideas any professional services firm could use to generate recurring revenue. From membership-driven content to exclusive access, join us to find out which model works best for you and your business.

In this video, we explore:

    • 6 ways you can generate recurring revenue at your professional services firm
    • How to identify which model is best for your firm
    • The impact AI might have on content and how to prepare for it

2x Your Revenue with this Share of Wallet Exercise

2x Your Revenue with this Share of Wallet Exercise

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You can quickly identify the available market that’s sitting inside your existing account base by conducting a share of wallet exercise. And once you identify the opportunity, you’ll start to notice the obstacles in your way.

Learn about conducting a share-of-wallet exercise, how to get more of the shared wallet, and how to manage a team with all of that in mind.

In this video, you’ll learn:

    • What a share-of-wallet exercise is
    • How to use the share-of-wallet exercise to identify growth opportunities
    • How to increase sales with existing accounts based on what they don’t know
    • Effective strategies your team can utilize based on data from the share-of-wallet exercise

Episode 133 – From Stuck to Unstuck: How a Founder Transformed a Lifestyle Business – Member Case by Jamey Harvey

Collective 54 member Jamey Harvey has doubled revenue and tripled margins in 18 months. This session shares how he did it by implementing the Boutique Framework, in its entirety, instead of one idea at a time. Hear how this remarkable entrepreneur went for it and won.

TRANSCRIPT

Greg Alexander [00:00:10] Welcome to the Pro Serv podcast, a podcast for leaders of thriving boutique professional services firms. For those that are not familiar with us, Collective 54 is the first mastermind community focused entirely on the unique needs of founders of boutique Pro Serv firms. My name is Greg Alexander. I’m going to be your host. And on today’s show, we do something a little different. Normally for regular listeners, listeners, you know this we take a single topic and kind of dive deep on it with the objective of, you know, makes making the most of a short 15 minute show. Today we’re going to combine multiple things and we’re going to have a case study of sorts. And it’s not a case study in the sense of, you know, hey, look how great we are. I’m not a fan of those. It’s a case study in the sense of, hey, members, here’s how to get some of these ideas implemented. I hear sometimes from members that the ideas are getting from Collective 54. Great. But there’s a lot of them, you know, And how do you get them implemented? And we’ve got a great role model in Jamey Harvey. And Jamey has done, in my opinion, the exceptional job of going from idea to implementation in a nanosecond. And he’s learned a lot in the process and has gotten some great results. So that’s what I’m going to do today. So, Jamey, if you wouldn’t mind, please introduce yourself and your firm to the group. 

Jamey Harvey [00:01:35] Yeah, great. I’m Jamey Harvey. I’m the CEO of Agilian. We are a boutique consulting firm. We serve social equity enterprises and we provide digital liberation services. So basically we work with enterprises that are serving social equity populations, vulnerable populations of people that are that need housing, where jobs or health care. And we help those organizations move to 21st century open source cloud based digital platforms. Most of them are stuck on something developed in the seventies or eighties, and it’s very, very complex for them to move because of their regulatory environments. And and it’s our privilege to help them do that. 

Greg Alexander [00:02:24] Okay, very good. So I’m going to kind of tee up some statements as opposed to questions, and I’m to let you run with those to, you know, to really illustrate. And I really want you to focus on this idea of how I idea to implementation. 

Jamey Harvey [00:02:37] Okay. 

Greg Alexander [00:02:37] So the first one is you got everybody billable. And as a result of this, you saw a growth in profits and revenue. So tell us a little bit about how you did that. 

Jamey Harvey [00:02:50] Well, a little background. You know, I would say a year and a half, two years ago before I joined Collective 54, we were sort of a lifestyle business serving state and local governments, and we were kind of trapped in our locality because I used to work for the D.C. government and we were a local DC cover company. And the regulations are such that we’re very advantaged to work in D.C. and not very advantage to go to other states. So we had sort of a digital liberation problem ourself and and I was trying to I was like I was like, okay, this business is nice, is great lifestyle business, you know? And it is we love what we do and we’re really good at it. But like, if I looked at like, how I could grow the business, it was all pretty unappealing, right? Like the, the, the, the paths. I could become a federally grader like this. Well, I go to the States. I’d have to, like, recuperate to do that was it was it was not great for growth. And so I was looking for a way to have a great business and a business that’s built to last have something generational that I could pass on to other people and could make a big difference for a long time. And and like 54 reached out to me and was like, Hey, we have this with this mastermind group. This is what we do. And you couldn’t have picked a better time for that because I was I was trying to figure out how to transform this whole business to be something special. Right? And we were going we tend to win projects. I would say we kind of box above our weight class and we had won a lot of quite large projects for a company our size. And and I have sort of a machine here that, that where I can do those projects. And I was trying to figure out how to grow enough to do these big projects. At the same time I was doing the projects. So I had invested a lot in infrastructure like infrastructure in people like Ausiello and CIO, and I brought in a professional services automation system, a PSA based on your guys recommendation. And we had made all of this investment and we we had a really good year. We doubled in size, you know, last year. And but our profitability went way down, like with, like, like we had a we had doubled in size and we made the same amount of money. So our profitability was cut in half. Right. And and it was a little you know, I knew we were investing. It wasn’t that big a shock, but it was a little startling. So. Something that I had done that I didn’t know was so useful was I had hired these kind of multi potentia people that had really great skill sets that other than what I was having them do. So like my VP of program management is built, you know, three giant government data warehouses and he’s a real expert in that. And my field is used to be the past president of the D.C. Bar and my Chief medical informatics officer ran interoperability for all the hours in the mid-Atlantic region. So I basically went to them. And those were people who are mainly not billable, who are sort of central people. And I was like, Look, you’d be great consultants, you know, like our customers would love you, you know? I know I didn’t hire you for this, but are you willing to get billable? And to a person, they were all like, Of course. Oh, my gosh, we’ll do it. Do anything. Right. And so we we really, like, took oh, and then I had another person who was like, less senior who wanted to learn to be a project manager, like she wanted to get her PMP, like she was sort of interested in the consulting path. So we re-engineered everybody’s jobs and we got everybody on the senior team, with the exception of one person, at least half billable, and some people, you know, like 70 or 80% billable and with the hope that that would be kind of the best of both worlds and also give us some flex as we as we take on these large projects, we could get the billable. And then, you know, if we’re doing the next lengthy, we have the feast and famine thing going on for right. So now everybody can flex to being billable when they when, when, when there’s billable to be had. Right. And they can go back to their other jobs in between to go build the business. 

Greg Alexander [00:07:16] Otherwise, yeah, it’s a great story because sometimes that’s a mistake that members make is, you know, they invest in the future, which we advocate for, and then all of a sudden they’re like, Wait a minute, revenue looks great, but margin doesn’t. It’s because they got all this non-bailable stuff. So the lesson there for the members is to get everybody know. 

Jamey Harvey [00:07:33] And we made that mistake, right? And so this was the correction of it. Really? Yeah. 

Greg Alexander [00:07:36] Yeah. Okay, great. All right. The next thing I want to talk to you about is the seller doer model and how you moved to that. 

Jamey Harvey [00:07:45] So you at one point in one of your podcasts were like, you know, don’t just go out there and hire a salesperson. You can hire the best salesperson in the world, and if you’re not ready to do it and you don’t have your positioning right and you haven’t, you know, that’s not going to work, right? Like you’re going to just bring that person over and they’re going to been successful someplace else and they’re going to fail at your company. So I did that. You know, I, I brought in an incredible executive from Oracle and like we and he was great and he fit the like he worked really hard, but we had no presence in the market, right? Like we had no story about who we were. We had no differentiation. And so, you know, eventually we you know, we had this very sad conversation of like, you know, we love you, we think you’re great. And like, we weren’t ready for you. Right. And parted friends, you know, And but but basically the conclusion I came to and then then I, I had done all the selling before, and then I went back to doing all the selling again. But the conclusion I came to was for the kind of complex, you know, big. Digital liberation kind of engagements that we’re selling. It’s very hard for somebody to sell that that hasn’t done it right. Like if you’re in front of customers and you don’t know the regulations around the cards for interoperability, when you’re talking to people who are doing that, they smell that right away. Right. Like, they don’t really want to talk to any salespeople. Right. So all of this sort of multi potential people that I was talking about before got I hope that’s a word as I’m saying it on a podcast, but it is now. Okay. Now, right now what we do is, you know, they they all went to their rolodexes. We, they all. Went through the Rolodex, sorted through, found all the social equity enterprises where they’ve got relationships and and I’ve been coaching them in a in a consultative sales model. So they’re selling doing right And when we get leads, if they’re in the medical area, they go to Ross Is that the medical person? If they’re the legal area, they go to Anna maria, who’s my you know, so we actually have these we’ve we’ve organized by vertical and people. Yeah, right. And so what’s great about that is I actually you know and they just bring me in to close the sale sometime or make the introduction like I’m I don’t have to be that involved because when, when those customers are talking they really want to talk to those people. Yeah right. I’m, I’m the generalist compared to those folks. Right. So I’m the generalist and they’re specialist and, and they can close the deal by themselves. Yeah. 

Greg Alexander [00:10:27] Just another great example because you know, I’ll hear from members, hey my delivery people and I hate that label but that’s term this use they don’t want to sell you know I can’t get them to contribute to the growth of the company. And the answer is you can’t. I mean, this is how this is how Jamie just did it and everybody was responsible for finding opportunity. And then the selling environment, as you just heard from from Jamie, was it was a collaborative one. He was involved when needed, but not at all when not needed. And that’s how you do it. And that’s called the seller door model. So if you’ve tried investing in the high powered, you know, senior exec sales person and it hasn’t worked, this is the alternative to that and give it a try. And it’s just a proof point that it can work in the right situation. And it’s more of a mentality and a cultural thing than anything else. Just like another great example of going from idea to implementation. I mean, next question, Jamie, is talk a little bit about you personally and how your day to day life has changed as you’ve taken some of these ideas that you’ve come across and implemented them in your firm. 

Jamey Harvey [00:11:29] So, you know, I don’t know if you remember this, Greg, but when I first joined, you know, I’m a I was really hungry for this framework. Let me let me start by saying that I read the book once. I read the book twice and I took notes, second rate I went through and I ended up with like, here are the 86 things that I must be valuable. And I scheduled a session with you. And I was like, okay, what do I do first? Right? Like, I can’t possibly do this all. And you were like, They’re in order. Like what? They’re like, Yeah, start with chapter one. Do those first and then do chapter two. Right. So, so about nine months ago, we spent a lot of time on chapter one and chapter two, which are getting your target market specific. So, you know, the big thing is like we’ve and we are a very socially conscious firm, like one of our core values of social equity, right? Another one of our another one of our core values is mutual liberation, like we are we are unabashedly do gooders, right? And and my people come to work for me like they’re there because they want to help, you know, poor, disabled children. Right. Like, which is what we do right, with, you know, with one of our. Showcase clients. Right. So. So we stopped saying to people, Hey, we do state and local government work. We started to say to people, Hey, we work with social equity enterprises, you know, and if you’re in a regulated environment, we understand that better than you do, right? For for the funding streams that you got to align and we can help you fund your big projects. And that message is so specific, right, to like a particular audience of people that those people are beginning to find us. So. So that is a totally different world to live in. Right. And and it feels great for everybody because now our inward expression of who we are, which are these, you know, unabashed do gooders, is aligned with our external representation of like, hey, this is what we do for a living, right? And so there’s this pole that, you know, where you’re you’re paddling the canoe in the river, the direction the river is going. So like, that is like a very, very big, you know, game changing transformation we’ve gone through as a result of being neglected. 54. 

Greg Alexander [00:13:46] Now, I want to follow up question on your day to day. Sometimes I hear from members, hey, these are all great ideas, but I don’t have any time to do them. I’m just too busy. I can’t get to them. And I remember our early conversations, and you were pretty busy guy, but you figured out how to of got to get to these items and and you’ve made all these changes in the firm has thrived as a result. I mean literally like how did you create the time to spend the necessary time on these items because these aren’t small items. 

Jamey Harvey [00:14:11] Well, I, I hired very great, very senior talent. So I didn’t really like like on that there was a there was an investment. Right. For sure. And and I am a talent magnet, thank goodness. Right. And the way that we’ve constructed the company has created a multiplying effect for that. We’re like people who want to do what we do are finding us now. Right. Like across the country, which is, you know, amazing. An amazing privilege to write. So it’s you know, I did most of my changes before. You did the Founder Bottleneck book. Yeah. But like, by the time I read The Founder Bottleneck and I did that diagnostic, I was no longer I had replaced myself 80%. 

Greg Alexander [00:14:58] Yeah. 

Jamey Harvey [00:14:59] Already. Right. And the last and I knew the last remaining one was the sales, which is what we’re doing with the seller do or model. So a large it’s it’s it’s I didn’t. And I got a lot of work to do. Like, I can go into that, which is probably a different topic, but like on some level, like the big boulders had sort of had sort of been handled. And I, I have really been able to to focus on strategy coaching, developing high potential people. 

Greg Alexander [00:15:31] Yep. Because. Because you remove yourself as the bottleneck. You hired a great team and that freed you up to do all these things. And, you know, in in Jamie’s example, I mean, he had a great lifestyle business and he have continue on that, but he wanted more and therefore he had to make the investment and he made the investment behind the right people, gave him back the time and boom, here we are. Right? So that’s the decision that we all have to make. Do we really want to be more than a lifestyle business? If so, are we willing to make the right investment to free ourselves up? 

Jamey Harvey [00:15:58] The other big change, of course, is our gross. Our gross margins went from 17% to 35%, and our our net margins went from like 8% to 25%. So which I think is what got your attention about this story. 

Greg Alexander [00:16:12] Yeah, I mean, it jumped off the table at me because because I know the investments you made also because I mean, you could say, like, how is that even possible? You made all these investments which would depress margins if you made all these investments and the opposite happened, you know, the margins and tripled. So help the audience understand that. 

Jamey Harvey [00:16:32] Well, partially it’s phasing like the investments actually depress the margin one year. And then and then they sprung back. They sprung back and then we saw the return. Right. So our business is you know, I talked to a lot of other members of like the 54 hour businesses lumpia are deals are are big are bigger than most of the deals and they’re collective and they last longer. Right. So that stuff develops more slowly for me. My sales cycles are longer right. Like so we’re we’re doing a lot of stuff that doesn’t show up the year that we do it right. It very often if we’re we’re seeing the results the next year. And part of, you know, but, you know, on some level, like what are the changes we made? We got the people, we got people billable. That’s going to make you more profitable. Yeah, we we got rid of salespeople and we had that consultants do that. That’s going to make us more profitable. We we raised our price. It’s like I don’t we skip over that. Like because of our positioning, we were able to demand a premium and, and, you know, compared to the other alternatives market that do what we do, we’re much like we’re so much less expensive than than the biggest. Right. Who are the people that are able to do what we do so. So all of that. You know, we now know that when we’re humming, like those are the normal margins that we ought to make. And we know we’ve got weaknesses because of the lumpiness, partially because, like last quarter, our main client, which is the D.C. government contracted and a bunch of contracts went away. Right. And on and we felt that very badly. But because we were running a healthier business, we were better able to test results like that. 

Greg Alexander [00:18:19] Yeah, exactly. 

Jamey Harvey [00:18:21] Yeah. 

Greg Alexander [00:18:21] All right. Well, listen, you are the quintessential role model for the boutique framework. And it was great to have this kind of macro conversation to see how multiple things combined together produce the end result. So I want to make sure I leave a call to action for the members. When you get the meeting, invite link for the private Q&A session will have with Jamie. Please accept it and attend and you can really dive in and ask a direct questions of him as to how he pulled this this miraculous story off. There’s a lot more to it than we can cover in a short podcast, so please attend. If you’re not a member, you should consider being one. Go to collect 50 for Whatcom, fill out the contact us form and somebody will get in contact with you. And if you haven’t yet had a chance to read the books and Jamie referenced the boutique kind of start scale and sell the pro firm. And then for members, if you want to eliminate the time constraints on yourself, check out the founder bottleneck. But with that, Jamie, I want to thank you for the contribution you made. You know, we’re trying to make deposits in the collective body of knowledge and you’re constantly doing that. So on behalf and all the members, thank you so much for being part of our community. 

Jamey Harvey [00:19:31] Thank you. It’s it’s really a privilege. Thank you. 

Greg Alexander [00:19:33] Great. Okay. With that, I wish everybody the best of luck as they try to grow, scale and exit their firms And until the next episode, go get them.

Master the Art of Forecasting Revenue, Profit, and Headcount in Your Boutique Service Firm: A Strategic Guide

Master the Art of Forecasting Revenue, Profit, and Headcount in Your Boutique Service Firm: A Strategic Guide

Ever wondered how to create a bulletproof forecast for your revenue, profit, and staffing needs in your professional service firm? It’s a critical task that can make or break your business growth, sale potential, and overall scalability. In the world of boutique firms, precision is everything. This post presents a hands-on guide to nailing these forecasts, with steps tailored to different scenarios: quarterly, annually, and multi-year.

Here is a guide to forecast revenue, profit, and headcount. 

Forecasting Revenue:

    1. Data Roundup: Your past can predict your future. Collate your historical revenue data, zeroing in on overall revenue and specific client or project revenue. For example: in 2020 the firm did $8 million, in 2021 $9 million and in 2022 $10 million.
       
    2. Identifying Revenue Influencers: What moves the needle in your firm? Client contracts, project pipelines, retention rates, market demand, and pricing strategies can all be key players. For example, in 2022 client #1 extended the contract by six months, but in 2023 the contract ended. 

    3. Reading Market Signals: Stay attuned to market conditions and trends. Wallet share, macro-economic indicators, and emerging opportunities can impact your revenue significantly. For example, the share of wallet inside your top 10 clients is 80% but you just invested in sales so new client acquisition should be up. 

    4. Revenue Modeling: Shape your data into something that speaks. Use techniques like trend analysis, regression analysis, or time series forecasting. For example, descriptive analytics describes what happened, diagnostic analytics tells you why it happened, predictive analytics will tell you what is about to happen, and prescriptive analytics tells you what to do to alter the future outcome. 

    5. Testing Your Assumptions: No forecast is complete without a sanity check. Engage your team, peers, mentors, and Collective 54 members to validate your assumptions. Pro tip: bounce your forecasts by your Collective 54 Leadership Board.

    6. Risk Assessment: Risk is a reality. Consider potential challenges like win rates, project delays, or employee turnover in your revenue forecast. For example, you are running at 100% utilization and time to fill an open req is 90 days.

    7. Refining Your Forecast: Stay nimble. Adjust your forecast to accommodate seasonality, cyclical patterns, or one-time events, and keep updating it as new information emerges. For example, the week between Christmas and New Years is dead.

Profit Forecasting:

    1. Counting the Cost: Your services come at a price. Calculate both direct and indirect costs associated with service delivery. For example, $20,000 to acquire a new client, ~20% of project fees go to cost to serve, 10% of firm revenue on overhead etc.
       
    2. The Drivers Behind Costs: Identify what’s causing your costs. The relationship between revenue growth, costs, and scaling can reveal a lot about your firm’s efficiencies. For example, the leverage ratio of senior to junior staff’s impact on labor costs. More seniors and less profit.

    3. Crafting Profit Models: Subtract your projected costs from revenue forecasts to build profit models, track profitability trends over time. For example, Collective 54’s benchmark data says best-in-class margins are 80% gross margin, and 50% EBITDA margin. How does your forecast stack up? 

    4. Sensitivity Analysis: Revenues and costs can change. So, how will this affect your profit? Test the waters with sensitivity analysis. For example, margins from your ideal clients are 65% but from non-ideal clients is 35%, and yet half your clients are outside your ideal client profile. What would happen to the profit forecast if you stopped selling shitty work?

    5. Financial Goals Alignment: Your profit forecast should match your financial ambitions. Pro tip: see what your firm is worth by using Collective 54’s Firm Estimator tool here.

Headcount Forecasting:

    1. Productivity Ratio Analysis: Profit and headcount are closely tied. Compute productivity ratios to better understand this relationship. For example, revenue per head in 2022 was $400k. 

    2. Staffing Need Assessment: Identify your staffing requirements based on projected revenue growth. For example, with 20% revenue growth, we need 4 juniors for every senior to keep our leverage ratio at 4:1. 

    3. Turnover Rate Consideration: Employee attrition can be a pain point. Use historical turnover rates to estimate future staff changes. For example, your historical turnover rate is 15% per 100 employees so to stay headcount neutral you need to recruit 15 people per year.

    4. Hiring Plan Development: Align your hiring plans with your revenue and profit forecasts. For example, you need 75% of the headcount expansion in the first half of the year if you are to hit the full year revenue goals.

    5. Monitoring and Adjustment: Always keep an eye on your actual headcount and adjust hiring plans when necessary. For example, revenue is softer than expected so reduce the hiring plan by x%.

Time Horizons and Their Impact on Forecasting

The forecasting processes outlined above may vary based on the time horizon involved.

    • Quarterly forecasts: Focus on short-term revenue and profit projections, considering specific sales pipelines, ongoing projects, and immediate market conditions. Headcount forecasts should align with the short-term workload. 

    • Annual forecasts: Incorporate a broader view of the market and consider long-term trends. Revenue and profit forecasts should account for annual cycles, market fluctuations, and strategic initiatives. Headcount forecasts should align with the anticipated workload for the year. 

    • Multi-year forecasts: Consider long-term market trends, industry developments, and strategic goals. Revenue and profit forecasts should reflect growth objectives, market expansion plans, and potential risks. Headcount forecasts should align with the long-term growth trajectory and strategic initiatives.

Conclusion

For any boutique professional service firm, forecasting revenue, profit, and headcount can be a make-or-break endeavor. With the above guide and by regularly updating your forecasts, you can make strides towards your wealth, income, and workload goals. Start your forecasting journey today and steer your firm towards continuous growth and prosperity.

Generating More Revenue with New Service Offerings

Generating More Revenue with New Service Offerings

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Your revenue stream is going to remain limited if your firm only has one thing to sell. But you can expand that revenue stream with multiple service offerings related to the problems you solve for your clients.

In this video, we explore how to generate new service offerings, strategies for creating demand around new services, and how to showcase your full capability as a firm.

Tune in to discover:

    • The 7 ways to source ideas for generating new service offerings
    • Strategies to create demand around new service offerings
    • How to show your clients what problems your firm is capable of solving
    • Effective ways to gather evidence to identify client needs

The 9 Revenue Sources for Pro Serve Firms: How Many Are You Using?

The 9 Revenue Sources for Pro Serve Firms: How Many Are You Using?

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The 9 Revenue Sources for Pro Serve Firms: How Many Are You Using?

Discover the 9 common revenue sources for a successful professional services firm. Learn about the advantages and disadvantages of each and how you may be able to realize more revenue this year by diversifying or strengthening how your firm makes money.   

In this week’s video, Greg shares:

    • The 9 Sources of revenue in the professional services business model
    • Pros and cons of each, plus additional things to think about
    • How to identify which revenue sources are best for your pro serve firm